A retirement plan faces more than one possible future. The experimental Retirement Resilience Explorer looks beyond a single year of pension splitting to explore household spending, savings, survivor affordability and an approximate after-tax estate. It starts with a simple three-step form for a couple in any Canadian province except Quebec; the prefilled numbers are examples, not recommendations.
2026 provincial tax reference: select a shared province of residence for both spouses, assumed unchanged throughout the projection. Quebec and the territories are not modeled. Federal and provincial calculations reflect 2026 rules with simplified assumptions, not a forecast of future law. Later budgets, brackets, credits and benefit changes require separate confirmation. Provincial benefit programs are excluded. The separate annual pension-splitting calculator remains Ontario-only.
Saving before retirement: optionally use different working-life spending while either living spouse is still working, and target a percentage of each person's employment pay to their own RRSP. Targets default to zero, are limited by entered room, age and available income after spending, and are not assumed better than TFSA saving. Current room and expected new annual room are entered explicitly rather than ignoring workplace pension adjustments. Remaining surplus uses TFSA room first, then non-registered accounts. The ledger reports contributions, unmet targets and modeled tax reductions. Spousal RRSP contributions, withdrawal attribution and actual refund timing are excluded.
- Build a household picture: enter essential and discretionary spending, each spouse's age and planned stop-work age, RRSP/RRIF, TFSA and non-registered balances, employment income, CPP/OAS estimates and workplace pensions. CPP/OAS start ages can be deferred through 70. Enter survivor CPP and pension totals explicitly rather than assuming two pensions simply add together.
- Challenge the plan: compare 12 named futures, including poor early market returns, the same returns in reverse order, earlier work cessation, higher inflation, unexpected expenses, care costs, long lives and earlier deaths. Work ends up to five years earlier, capped at the first projection year: someone aged 63 planning to stop at 65 tests stopping at 63, two years earlier.
- Compare transparent withdrawal policies: test non-registered-first against registered-first, with TFSA last in both. Mandatory registered withdrawals come first, eligible annual pension splitting is modeled, and surplus cash is reinvested. These rules are not a tax-optimal withdrawal recommendation.
- Focus on outcomes: see when desired or essential spending falls short, the survivor's largest essential-cost gap, and an estimated estate after additional final tax. One asset chart compares the normal plan with a selected stress; an optional annual cashflow table lets you check the numbers. Unfunded spending is reported as a gap, not silently borrowed.
- Keep your inputs locally, if you choose: calculations run in your browser, and inputs are not sent to our server. "Remember my inputs on this browser" is off by default; enabling it restores inputs on refresh or a later visit, but not results. "Forget saved inputs" removes the saved copy without changing the current form. Other people using the same browser profile may see saved inputs. Browser storage is not encrypted or a backup, and clearing site data removes it.
Stress tests, not predictions: the scenarios are illustrative and not equally likely. The number of tests with a spending gap is not a probability of failure. Earlier death can leave a larger estate because fewer years of spending were funded; that does not make it a better retirement outcome.
Clearer comparisons: enabled historical replay is selected automatically. Results identify the current experiment, historical/calendar alignment, retirement and benefit timing, investment mix and steady-assumption chart reference, with an expandable input snapshot. A text-and-colour spending status highlights gaps. The Plan fit score measures cumulative spending funded: essentials 60%, lifestyle 25%, survivor essentials 15%, with inapplicable goals excluded and weights normalized. The chosen mix and both reserve extremes are scored within the same future. Estate size earns no points; the score is not a probability, and first/worst gaps still matter even with a high score.
What could help? optionally compare one change at a time without replacing your plan: each eligible spouse works one additional year, defers CPP or OAS separately by one year (up to 70), or the household reduces discretionary spending by 10%. Compare spending coverage, bridge-year gaps, survivor shortfalls, tax trade-offs and estate changes within the same future and policy. Market shocks and historical replay keep their original projection-year mapping, even if retirement moves. Forced-job-loss futures do not offer working longer; already-started benefits and approved OAS are not deferred again. These experiments are not optimized recommendations. Enter assumed returns net of investment fees; no separate fee deduction is applied.
Optional OAS residence estimate: each spouse can keep the manual age-65 estimate, choose a simplified Canadian-resident calculation, or enter an already-approved pension. Residence mode compares the initially eligible partial pension with deferral, residence at approval, and applicable full-pension deferral. It does not stack the later residence fraction with the full deferral increase: 35 residence years at 65 and 40 at 70 generally gives 119% of full basic OAS, not 136%. Whole-year timing and ordinary residence rules apply; international agreements, complex residence and partial-OAS GIS are excluded. Already-approved pensions do not gain additional residence or deferral. See OAS Act section 7.1.
Optional GIS planning estimate: income-tested support can matter before assets run out. Opt in only if you assume full OAS eligibility, Canadian residence and no sponsorship restriction. The annual estimate uses current-year modeled income and October-December 2026 rates, with separate couple/survivor categories and smoothed benefit reductions. Registered withdrawals and taxable investment income may reduce GIS; TFSA withdrawals do not. Deferring OAS delays GIS. Actual payments normally use prior-year income and July reassessments; partial OAS, Allowance benefits, monthly timing and high-income terminal benefit recovery are excluded. GIS is included in income and shown separately in the ledger. Verify payments with Service Canada; rates come from official GIS tables.
Investment mix: optionally enter cash/GIC-like and bond percentages of existing balances, with equities as the remainder. Annual rebalancing maintains the percentages across accounts; these are not extra savings or a spending buffer used first in downturns. Cash interest, assumed bond income and foreign dividends are reinvested and taxed annually in non-registered accounts using simplified pooled cost basis. Income is included within total returns. GIC maturity restrictions, guarantees and foreign withholding credits are not modeled.
Optional historical replay: try a start year from 2000 through 2024, including 2000, 2008 and 2022. Replay starts at the first retirement by default, or at the first projection year if selected. This is a clearly labeled US/USD illustration: S&P 500 total returns, 10-year US Treasury returns, Treasury-bill rates and US CPI inflation, with no CAD conversion or ETF claims. Calendar and tax assumptions remain 2026 onward. Once recorded 2024 data ends, the ledger labels the return to your assumptions. Non-registered bond/dividend income uses your assumed yields, not recorded historical distributions. Sources: NYU Stern return data and World Bank US inflation.
Important prototype assumptions: values are in 2026 purchasing-power dollars. Future tax thresholds are hypothetically held constant in purchasing power, even where current rules do not index them. All accounts share an investment mix and return path; fees, Canadian dividend credits and capital-loss relief are excluded. The default 50% capital-gains inclusion is an explicit assumption, not a prediction of future law. Whole-year income and death timing, registered conversion by 71 and minimum withdrawals from 72 are simplified conventions; the RRSP-for-life proposal is not treated as enacted.
Survivor and estate estimates need care: first-death transfers assume qualifying spousal rollovers and a TFSA successor holder, requiring appropriate arrangements. A single survivor loses pension splitting and spouse credits. The last-death estimate includes remaining registered assets and included accrued gains, without a terminal-year pension-splitting election. Housing, debt, probate, estate administration costs, AMT and other refundable benefits are excluded. GIS is available only as an optional annual approximation. Changing retirement age does not recalculate CPP contribution history. This is not a complete financial plan or an estate tax return.
Official references
These sources explain the underlying rules, not the illustrative market paths or future-law assumptions:
- Service Canada CPP start ages and OAS start ages
- Service Canada CPP survivor pension and combined benefit limits
- CRA pension income splitting
- CRA receiving income from a RRIF
- CRA registered assets at death and capital property at death
The Retirement Resilience homepage is now the first navigation item. The annual Retirement Income Splitting calculator and historical calculators remain available. Use this explorer to identify questions and trade-offs, then verify decisions with current rules and qualified advice.